Prepared by Tom Murray
Short Forecast Friday 12th August
SW swell. 2 to 3ft+ (bigger at the outer reefs). ESE winds 10 to 15 knots.
Saturday 13th August
SW swell. 3 to 4ft(+). ESE winds 10 to 15 knots.
Sunday 14th August
SW swell. 3 to 4ft, swell a bit more inconsistent in the upper range. ESE winds 10 to 20 knots.
Monday 15th August
SW swell. 2 to 3ft+. ESE winds 10 to 20 knots.
Tuesday 16th August
New SSW groundswell. Pushing back up towards 3 to 6ft through the day. ESE winds 10 to 20+ knots.
Wednesday 17th August
Building SSW groundswell. 6ft+. ESE winds 10 to 20+ knots.
Thursday 18th August
SSW groundswell. 6ft++. ESE winds 10 to 20 knots.
Forecast Overview
We saw some solid surf through the first week of August, right in time for the Rip Curl Cup event with surf peaking around 6 to 10ft at the contest.
Padang – Images by Ted Grambeau
Swell has eased off last week dropping back to around head high to head high plus by Thursday. The easing trend should continue into Friday, dropping back to around 2 to 4ft. The smaller surf through the end of the week, is short-lived with some serious storm development in the Indian Ocean this week.
An exceptional extra-tropical low is currently undergoing cyclogenesis. A strong SW to SSW fetch is set up in the Southern Indian Ocean from today. The development of this fetch is aided by a high pressure system moving out from below Madagascar, slowly rotating in the central Indian Ocean.
A strong pressure gradient is set up between the high and the storm, with a vast fetch of 30 to 50 knot winds aimed toward Indonesia. The closer range swell should begin to arrive over the weekend, before easing off through Sunday into Monday. The low then tracks away to the East, but maintains a SW fetch aimed toward our swell window.
As such we won’t have to wait long for the next significant swell event. Latest nearshore wave models are showing groundswell building in Bali through the first half of next week. We can expect quite solid surf in our region on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. In the longer range outlook; the Open Ocean storm track doesn’t look set to quieten down any time soon either. What can I say? It’s just that time of the year.
- Tom Murray
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